🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Profited $436,000 from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the hours before former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a rapid movement in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited significant sums from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on recently would prevent federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from elections to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."